For several years now, the number of Americans that do not associate with any particular religion has been increasing consistently, a trend that has also picked pace across several European countries, including the United Kingdom. Yet, in the coming years, the percentage of religiously unaffiliated people is expected to fall, found a new study by Pew Research Center.
To be specific, the total number of religiously unaffiliated people, including agnostics, atheists and others who do not associate themselves with any particular religion, is expected to increase from 1.1 billion in 2010 to 1.2 billion in 2050. However, this increase is expected to take place at a time when other religious denominations as well as the global population will be increasing at a faster pace. The projections that have taken into consideration various demographic factors like age composition, fertility rate and life expectancy suggest that people with no religion will constitute approximately 13 percent of the world’s population in 2050, which is roughly 16 percent lower than what it was in 2010.
This peculiar projection has been attributed to the fact that religious “nones,” on average, belong to an older age group and produce fewer children, who, by default, would identify with no particular religion. In 2010, for example, 28 percent people belonging to any of the major religions in the world were younger than 15 years, as compared to 19 percent of those who are classified as religious nones. Also, believers are understood to give birth to an average of 2.6 children per woman as opposed to an average of 1.7 children per woman among nonbelievers.
Of the ten countries with the largest number of religious nones in 2010, all have been projected to decline as a share of the world’s population by 2050. These countries include the United States as well as nine others across Europe and Asia, regions that have comparatively older populations and lower fertility rates as compared to countries in the Middle East and Africa. The projection also takes into account religious conversion for 70 countries, where this phenomenon is expected to become more and more popular.
As religious switching has emerged as the reason behind the increasing number of nones in the United States as well as Europe, a net increase of over 60 million people are expected to join the ranks of the religiously unaffiliated between 2010 and 2050.
Some social theorists believe, as countries make economic developments, more of their citizens tend to move away from religious affiliation. While European countries are a perfect example of this notion, countries with a majority Muslim population do not seem to follow the same pattern. Moreover, in countries like India, where there is a majority Hindu population, religious affiliation continues to reign despite colossal economic and social developments. China, on the other hand, with its large population and lack of reliable data on religious conversions, does not help determine much about the future of world religion. This is, in fact, truer for religious nones, since more than half of the world’s population that does not identify with any particular religion (approximately 700 million), live in China. However, some social theorists believe that China is experiencing a reverse phenomenon, with the number of Christians increasing and the number of religious nones declining. If that notion is true, then the trend projected by Pew Research Center is likely to continue, with the total number of nonbelievers declining even beyond the estimates made in the study.
Photo Credits: Let Freedom Ring
